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C+CT

Nashville’s growth is music to retail developers’ ears

June 15, 2018

Country music helped put Nashville on the map as a popular destination. But these days Tennessee’s capital city is experiencing a surge in population and job growth well beyond what it has long been realizing through its famous Grand Ole Opry.

Music magnet

Music magnet Tourists flock to Broadway Street

People are calling Nashville one of the “it” cities, notes David Atchison, vice president of retail services at the Nashville office of Toronto-based Colliers International. According to the Nashville Area Chamber of Commerce, Nashville has ranked among the top 10 U.S. cities in job-growth terms for the past six years. And the metro area grew at an average rate of 94 people per day from 2016 through July 2017, according to the latest U.S. Census data.

Moreover, Nashville’s thriving music scene helps draw nearly 15 million tourists each year. “All of these dynamics have converged at the right time, and we have seen rather explosive growth for the last several years,” Atchison said.

The vibrant employment picture, a lower-than-average cost of living and some comparatively low tax rates have joined to create a powerful population magnet, according to Katie Barton, locally based director of research for Colliers International. “You have a really strong, diverse economy, and there also is a talent pool that is very good for businesses, with 18 colleges and universities,” said Barton. About 60 percent of the graduates of these educational institutions stay and work in Nashville, sources say. “You have a young, educated workforce here, and a lot of them are congregating downtown, so it’s no surprise that it has been a hotbed of development for retail and entertainment here in Nashville.”

The retail vacancy rate has hovered at about 3.4 percent for the past three years, according to Colliers. Currently, slightly less than 1 million square feet of retail space is under construction, more than half of which is in or directly adjacent to the downtown. “Not unlike a lot of cities, we’re experiencing that urban migration with a lot of residential growth,” said Atchison. “Combine that with our tourism that really gravitates to downtown, and it’s a natural opportunity for retail to expand.”

Development has focused on the central core and the urban markets, such as Germantown and The Gulch. Three mixed-use projects now under way are predicted to become game changers: Capitol View Nashville, Fifth & Broadway and Nashville Yards. “All are within a half mile of each other, and all are unique in their own way and will really change the dynamic of our downtown,” said Jeff Moats, a partner at retail real estate advisory firm The Shopping Center Group.

Nashville Yards is a 16.2-acre mixed-use development that runs from Broadway to Church Street at the entrance to downtown Nashville. Its developer, Southwest Value Partners, intends to build about 1.5 million square feet of offices, 1,000 residential units, 1,100 hotel rooms and 600,000 square feet of retail space there. Construction is now under way on the first parcel: a 591-room Hyatt Regency that is slated to open in 2020. Separately, Los Angeles–based entertainment company AEG purchased nearly four acres of the site from Southwest for a project with a 4,000-seat music venue, a Regal luxury cinema, and other entertainment and food-and-beverage tenants, plus a boutique hotel.

Rising star

Rising star Nashville Yards is a 16.2-acre mixed-use development that runs from Broadway to Church Street at the entrance to downtown Nashville. Its developer, Southwest Value Partners, intends to build about 1.5 million square feet of offices, 1,000 residential units, 1,100 hotel rooms and 600,000 square feet of retail space there.

Fifth & Broadway is a $400 million mixed-use project that OliverMcMillan and Spectrum Emery are building on the site of the former Nashville Convention Center. The master plan calls for 235,000 square feet of retail and entertainment space, 385,000 square feet of class-A office space, about 300 apartments and the National Museum of African American Music. The developers announced in February that they had agreed to bring in a 100,000-square-foot food hall, the city’s first, to anchor the retail and entertainment portion. H&M is set to open a 27,000-square-foot store, most likely in the fall of 2019.

The Capitol View mixed-use project sits on 32 acres in the North Gulch area. Early phases of the project are already open, with completion anticipated for the first quarter of 2019. Boyle Investment Co. and Northwestern Mutual are developing the project, which is to comprise 1.1 million square feet of offices, 130,000 square feet of specialty retail and restaurants, a 169-room Hampton Inn & Suites, a 378-unit upscale apartment project and a 2.5-acre urban park.

“Those three projects alone are going to bring something to downtown that we don’t have right now: We don’t really have those gathering areas where there is critical mass and the opportunity to create that shopping, dining and entertainment destination that people are looking for today,” said Atchison.

New release

New release The Capitol View development sits on 32 acres in the North Gulch area of Nashville

The downtown, whose population has surpassed 10,000 residents, is about to get its first grocery store: a 41,500-square-foot Whole Foods that is now under construction and which will be part of a mixed-use development near the intersection of 12th Avenue North and Broadway. Apparel, home-furnishings and sporting-goods stores are among the retailers seeking to locate to the downtown, according to Atchison.

“We have a lot of retailers and restaurants that want to expand or enter the market,” said Moats. “The challenge has been finding the place to put them.” Vacancies have resulted from the closures of H.H. Gregg, Sears and others. When those spaces become available, there are frequently some half dozen retailers lined up to move in, he says.

One challenge is the cost of land in the urban core, which has some developers going vertical with below-grade parking. “That is new for Nashville, and our consumers are trying to get used to going to the grocery store and parking underground,” said Moats. “But it’s the new reality, based on land prices.”

By Beth Mattson-Teig

Contributor, Commerce + Communities Today

Commerce + Communities Today

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