More stores will be opening than closing in 2020, with thousands to be launched across the U.S. in the course of the year, according to one of several predictions by CBRE.
“2020 will be a pivotal year for reinventing the retail landscape with a slowdown in new [retail space] supply, the integration of sectors and use in abundant mixed-use redevelopment, and the emergence of new brands,” reads the report, U.S. Real Estate Market Outlook 2020.
The health-and-wellness sector in particular is growing fast, spawning new concepts in specialty fitness and beauty, as well as innovations in traditional pharmacy chains. These tenants “are not just selling products and services; they are building communities of like-minded consumers,” the report observes. It also notes the popularity of physical retail shopping among Generation-Z shoppers.
“2020 will be a pivotal year for reinventing the retail landscape with a slowdown in new [retail space] supply, the integration of sectors and use in abundant mixed-use redevelopment, and the emergence of new brands”
Sales growth is expected to slow in the U.S. this coming year, as consumers grow more cautious about the economy. And yet, net absorption in all but four markets that CBRE has tracked is likely to be positive, as also rent growth in 44 of 62 markets tracked, thanks to a robust volume of store openings and a limited supply of new retail space coming online, the report says.
The report predicts that property values will remain “largely stable” this coming year, while NOI will rise, causing cap rates to increase slightly.
Total investment volume in U.S. commercial real estate is expected to decline by between 5 and 10 percent as investors become more cautious, given the late stage of the economic growth cycle, the report speculates, though foreign investment in U.S. commercial real estate will probably rebound. “With global bond yields expected to remain extremely low and equity markets likely weaker and more volatile, the stable, solid returns of U.S. commercial real estate will be even more attractive.”
By Edmund Mander