Small businesses supply many of the data points economic forecasters watch for signs of recession. Small business data, Federal Reserve interest rate hikes, large selloffs of crude oil in anticipation of a flagging economy, slower growth of consumer spending, decreasing consumer demand and investor retreats in the stock market add up to a grim picture, according to Fortune. Here are some clear signs that cutbacks by small businesses could spill over into the wider economy:

• Though they’re falling, high gas prices have pushed up delivery costs for small businesses that deliver, such as restaurants, and are affecting all types of small business suppliers.
• Higher starting wages from larger employers, which pay $15 to $17 an hour, make hiring harder for small businesses.
• Supply chain problems make it hard for smaller businesses to maintain inventory, get parts for their own operations and secure goods in the quantities they require.

For more detail, read this story in Fortune.