A resurgence in COVID-19 cases won’t deter U.S. shoppers from spending more on holiday gifts and items in 2021. A majority also plan to visit physical stores, despite an increase in COVID hospitalizations and infections in recent months. That’s according to ICSC’s Annual Holiday Shopping Intentions Survey of 1,005 demographically representative consumers conducted Sept. 24 to 26.

How much will they spend?

ICSC forecasts sales for the period of November and December will increase 8.9% year over year, reaching $923 billion. Holiday shoppers plan to spend an average of $637 on gifts and other holiday items. And 78% anticipate spending the same or more this holiday season than they did during last year’s holidays. And they won’t be spending just at stores. ICSC forecasts that food-and-beverage establishments’ sales will grow 35.4% over 2020’s holiday season.

Where will they shop?

During the holiday season, more than three-fourths of holiday shoppers will visit malls and other shopping centers to shop, dine and engage in other activities like haircuts, manicures, massages and visiting Santa. In fact, 85% plan to spend money in physical stores this holiday season. A 13% anticipated increase in online sales also will boost physical store traffic; of the shoppers who intend to use click-and-collect, 72% are likely to make additional purchases while picking up their online orders.

A significant share of holiday shoppers, 37%, say the ability to see, touch and try merchandise drives their desire to shop in store. Other motivators include the ability to get items immediately, cited by 34%, and the ability to browse for gift ideas, cited by 30%.

“Strong retail spending has driven a significant economic recovery this year despite the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, and consumers continue to return to pre-pandemic behaviors in the face of uncertainty,” said ICSC president and CEO Tom McGee. “Consumers have remained resilient throughout 2021, which I am confident will continue during and after the holiday shopping season.”

When will they shop?

The holiday season will start earlier than usual this year. Seventy-five percent expect to start 2021 holiday shopping earlier than normal. Among those starting early, 45% are doing so to make sure products are available, 42% to take advantage of early deals and 42% to guarantee timely delivery.

Promotions and deals will be the primary activators of holiday shopping trips this holiday season, as 80% of shoppers say deals play a role in their holiday purchases. Half of shoppers say searching for discounts encourages them to make more trips to stores. And 38% plan their shopping around specific promotional events.

“Concerns around supply chain issues, shipping delays and inflation are weighing heavily on the minds of consumers and driving them to begin their holiday shopping earlier than usual,” McGee said. “We expect to see strong consumer activity despite these challenges, but it’s critical that retailers and consumers alike plan ahead and do everything they can to mitigate supply chain issues to ensure a successful holiday season.”