Retail Real Estate Leaders Share What’s Driving the Market Now

The Short Version

• Retail real estate leaders say tight supply, high rents and low vacancy continue to define market conditions nationwide.
• Strong retailer fundamentals are showing up in store expansion plans and a historically low number of bankruptcies.
• Open‑air, grocery‑anchored centers are drawing increased interest from both daily‑needs and traditionally mall‑based retailers.
• Physical retail is proving resilient when paired with strong operators and well‑located, high‑quality space, even amid a more cautious environment.

Market Signals From Retail Real Estate Decisionmakers

As retail real estate continues to challenge long‑held assumptions, leaders across the sector are focusing less on short‑term pressures and more on strategy, selectivity and long‑term durability.

Those themes emerged repeatedly at the 4th annual Real Estate Gala on April 23, a black-tie, invite-only event hosted by Don Tepman — known on social media channels as StripMallGuy — and co-hosted by industry veteran Bob Knakal, chair and CEO of BKREA. Held at Peak at 30 Hudson Yards, the event drew hundreds of dealmakers, developers and commercial real estate voices. ICSC was among the sponsors of the evening.

What began as a social media–driven community has expanded into a live, invitation‑only event centered on networking and market conversation. For Tepman, who is president and founder of TownCentre Capital and has been a guest on ICSC’s From Where I Sit With Tom McGee podcast, that intersection is the point.

Networking and Deal Flow in a Tight Market

“Over the years, friendships have definitely come about but also deals are happening,” he said of the event. “There’s a lot of dollars being traded, as well. It’s a fun event, but it’s also a business event. It’s … the best of social media and the best of commercial real estate coming together.”

That convergence mirrors market conditions, where fundamentals remain strong as competition for quality assets intensifies. Asked what is top of mind, Tepman pointed to a national retail real estate environment defined by scarcity.

“Right now nationwide in every single city in America, if you ask the brokers and owners there what’s going on with retail, they’ll tell you the same thing: They’ve never seen rent so high, never seen vacancy so low,” he said. “So right now for every single retail buyer in America, large or small, finding a deal that makes sense is the biggest challenge.”

Tight Supply, High Rents and the Challenge of Finding Deals

Several attendees framed that tightness not as a warning sign but as evidence of how resilient physical retail has become, particularly for well-located, well-merchandised centers. “People are still underestimating how resilient physical retail is — when it’s done right,” said MCB Real Estate vice president of retail leasing Julie Fox. “What we’re actually seeing is a shift toward stronger operators, better concepts and more intentional merchandising.”

Rethinking Physical Retail and Open‑Air Centers

Brixmor vice president of national accounts Evie Gross said misconceptions persist around open-air, grocery-anchored centers, in particular, even as they attract an expanding universe of tenants. “People don’t realize that the daily-needs traffic generator like our asset class — which at Brixmor, across our portfolio last year, we had over 900 million visits — is really drawing the attention of traditionally mall-based retailers,” she said, pointing to brands like Victoria’s Secret, Sephora and Bath & Body Works.

That traffic, Gross added, underscores why predictions that e-commerce will supplant brick-and-mortar retail continue to miss the mark. “People think that the internet is going to kill retail sales,” she said. “The internet is actually a relatively small portion of overall retail sales and is really not the most profitable way for retailers to do a transaction. The ‘last-mile’ approach of stores is a much more profitable way for a retailer to make a sale.”

Expansion Plans and Fewer Retail Bankruptcies

Gross expects the lack of retail bankruptcies this year to catch many by surprise. “What’s going to surprise people by the end of the year is the small amount, or lack thereof, of retail bankruptcies,” she said. “So far, there have only been seven this year.”

By comparison, she noted, there were 26 retail bankruptcies last year and 33 in 2024. The shift, she said, gives landlords more opportunity to think intentionally about tenant mix. “The strength of retailers combined with a lack of space is a real opportunity for us landlords to be strategic and thoughtful about our merchandising and to really deliver what the community wants.”

Stephanie McGowan, a real estate group managing director overseeing U.S. retail and office investments for Blackstone, said retailer confidence is showing up clearly in expansion plans. “One thing that people are missing in retail real estate is that the best retailers in the U.S. have actually increased their store-growth targets,” she said. “That’s across beauty, fitness, grocery, health, etc.”

Those plans remain intact even amid economic and geopolitical uncertainty. “Despite a volatile last year and certainly [the] last couple of months, retailers have continued to execute, continued to invest capital,” McGowan said. “I expect to see them keep going — despite headlines — because the best retailers are long-term focused and they have clear growth targets that they need to hit.”

Demand for Quality Space Remains a Defining Trend

Fox likewise pointed to continued competition for high-quality space as a defining trend. “What will surprise people most is the continued demand for well-located, high-quality space,” she said, noting that “the pace of dealmaking in strong trade areas is holding up better than many expected.”

The upshot from these expert attendees at the Real Estate Gala is that retail real estate is evolving and strength increasingly is concentrated among disciplined operators, high-quality locations and retailers with clear, long-term growth strategies.