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4 Key Retail and Consumer Forecasts for 2026

Comfort Food, Smashburgers and Value Menus Lead 2026 Culinary Trends

The National Restaurant Association’s What’s Hot 2026 Culinary Forecast serves up a smorgasbord of food-and-beverage trends for 2026, including comfort foods, smashburgers, value menus, protein add-ons and low- or no-alcohol beverages. Comfort food is so popular that the report puts them on two plates: traditional comfort food and global comfort foods. “Today’s foodies are looking for escape — the chance to step out of their everyday into somewhere comfortable,” the report said. Among consumers’ go-to comfort foods are “familiar classics” like soups, stews and burgers, it said.

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Are Former Joann Shoppers Spinning Up Interest in Fabric Stores?

Want to sew up some leases in 2026? Yelp’s 2026 Trend Forecast said fabric stores, needlepoint shops and yarn shops experienced a year-over-year uptick in online searches and review mentions for the period from September 2024 through August 2025. Yelp’s analysis showed a 3,771% jump in searches and reviews related to fabric stores, with needlepoint shops at 173% and yarn shops at 169%. The increase could be tied to the closure this spring of all Joann fabric and craft stores following the retailer’s Chapter 11 bankruptcy filing. A hodgepodge of other retail concepts made Yelp’s trend list: bathroom vanity stores, for which searches and reviews rose 530%; liquidation stores, up 47%; witchcraft stores, up 43%; gym equipment stores, up 35%; and mattress stores, up 25%.

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Retail’s Value and Luxury Barbell Effect

Colliers’ Global Retail: 2025 Trends and 2026 Outlook Report spotlighted the widening barbell effect in retail, marked by the growth of value-oriented retailers on one end and luxury retailers on the other. Colliers said shoppers are stretching their budgets for essentials and are trading up when the brand, experience or convenience justifies extra spending. Caught in the middle are midmarket retailers, the report said.

Retail Loan Workouts and Distressed Sales Are Expected To Rise in 2026

A new report from professional services heavyweight KPMG predicts “acute” refinancing challenges for the retail and office sectors in 2026. According to KPMG’s Real Estate Accounting and Reporting 2025 report, citing data from JLL and MSCI Real Assets, a decline in asset values and a significant number of maturing loans will create concerns for retail and office landlords next year. Thirty percent of maturing loans in these sectors are at risk of defaulting or need to be restructured, the report said. As a result, loan workouts and sales of distressed properties are expected to rise through 2026, said KPMG.

Target’s $1B Capex Budget Boost Will Accelerate Store Growth

Big-box retailer Target is upping its capital expenditure budget for fiscal year 2026 by $1 billion. The money will go toward opening and remodeling stores, improving technology and boosting digital capabilities. During the company’s third-quarter earnings call, Target executives said the capex budget for fiscal year 2026, which starts in January, will jump from about $4 billion to $5 billion as Target pushes for $15 billion in sales growth by 2030.

In March, Target said it planned to open about 20 stores this year as it shoots for more than 300 new stores over a 10-year span. As it moves through its pipeline of new stores, it will open its larger-format stores in more U.S. markets, said COO Michael Fiddelke, who will become CEO on Feb. 1. Target’s larger-format stores measure nearly 150,000 square feet, over 20,000 larger than the chain’s typical stores.

Developer Plans Major Reinvention on Miami Beach’s Lincoln Road

$10B Master-Planned Community Takes Shape in Dallas-Fort Worth Suburb

Denton, Texas’ first master-planned community is on the way, and the developer is shedding light on just how massive the project will be. Hillwood recently revealed that at full buildout, the 3,200-acre Landmark will be valued at $10 billion, The Dallas Morning News reported. The newspaper noted that executives bill the development as a “city within a city.”

Simon Expands Charlotte Portfolio With 134,000 SF Phillips Place Acquisition

Simon has purchased Phillips Place, a 134,000-square-foot open-air retail center in Charlotte, North Carolina’s upscale SouthPark mixed-use district. The sellers were former Lincoln Harris CEO Johnny Harris and The Village Collection, the Charlotte Business Journal reported.

Surveys Show Strong Holiday Support for Small Businesses

Two new surveys show just how much consumers appreciate small businesses during the holiday season. A Talker Research survey commissioned by SurePayroll by Paychex found that, on average, 44% of U.S. consumers purchase holiday gifts from small businesses. A different survey came to a similar conclusion: Of the U.S. consumers polled by NMI, a provider of embedded payments technology, 49% planned to shop on Small Business Saturday this year. Now in its 16th year, Small Business Saturday will take place Nov. 29. Last year, patrons of independent retailers and restaurants in the U.S. spent an estimated $22 billion on Small Business Saturday, according to the American Express 2024 Small Business Saturday Consumer Insights Survey.