For those looking to get a read on Washington, D.C.’s commercial real estate market rather than the race to occupy the White House, the focus is less on polls and more on construction cranes, leasing activity and retail foot traffic. Ahead of ICSC@MID-ATLANTIC happening Sept 3 and 4, here’s a look at some of the top projects, trends and deals impacting local markets in the D.C. metro and Baltimore.

Mixed-Use Development Remains Active

According to the Washington Business Journal, the District of Columbia has seen more than $81 billion of new commercial real estate development since 2000. Although new retail construction is limited, here are two notable mixed-use projects coming out of the ground:

• The Ox – Fairfax, proposed in Northern Virginia, will feature arts, entertainment, retail, hospitality and food-and-beverage. Developer Ox Hill Cos. proposes a 2,410-seat music venue, theater, art gallery, upscale hotel and conference center, luxury retail and five restaurants. Groundbreaking is anticipated for the fourth quarter of 2024.
• Toll Brothers Apartment Living has signed Gold’s Gym as the first retail tenant at Vermeer, a luxury multifamily community at Buzzard Point, which sits in the Capitol Riverfront Business Improvement District between the Navy Yard and The Wharf. The project, which is expected to open this winter, features 501 luxury apartments and 37,000 square feet of retail.

Baltimore’s Waterfront, Plus the Key Bridge

Under Armour founder Kevin Plank is leading the charge on the major redevelopment of Baltimore Peninsula, formerly known as Port Covington. Plans for the former railroad terminal call for a riverfront destination with green space, shopping, dining and entertainment. When fully built out, the multiyear development is expected to span as much as 18 million square feet of space, 2.5 miles of restored waterfront and 40 acres of parks and green space.

And planning is well underway to rebuild Baltimore’s Francis Scott Key Bridge following its March collapse. According to Engineering News Record, the Maryland Transportation Authority has issued a formal request for proposals and expects to select a Phase 1 project team by late summer. The agency is optimistic that a new structure could be complete by fall 2028. Prior to the collapse, bridge traffic totaled roughly 40,000 vehicles per day as part of the Interstate 695 Baltimore Beltway.

Retail Leasing Maintains Steady Pace

Record-low construction is contributing to tighter vacancies in the D.C. metro. As of the second quarter, year-over-year multitenant vacancy for Northern Virginia, Southwestern Maryland and the District declined 30 basis points to 5.3%, according to Marcus & Millichap.

Despite challenges in downtown neighborhoods, retailers continue to have a strong appetite for space across the overall metro, particularly in suburban Maryland and Virginia and vibrant urban neighborhoods like Georgetown. Net new store openings for 2023 and the first few months of 2024 were positive at more than 200 and more are in the pipeline, according to CBRE.

CBRE noted in its spring Retail Market Trends report for the metro that the city is taking key steps to revitalize downtown, which like many major metros has struggled to regain daytime workers following the pandemic. Mayor Muriel Bowser’s Downtown Action Plan calls for roughly $400 million in spending over the next five years across multiple initiatives. The city also put together a $515 deal to keep the Washington Wizards basketball and Washington Capitals hockey teams from vacating Capital One Arena in favor of a new location at Potomac Yard in Northern Virginia.

5 New and Expanding Retailers

Primark Brings Primania to D.C. Shoppers

Primark is expanding its reach in the D.C. metro. After opening at Arundel Mills in Hanover, Maryland, in June, the retailer opened its second store in the metro, at Tysons Corner Center, in July. Primark also has announced leases at Potomac Mills in Woodbridge, Virginia, and Mall at Prince George’s in Hyattsville, Maryland. According to PREIT, the 30,000-square-foot store at Mall at Prince George’s is set to open in 2025. The D.C. expansion is part of the company’s plan to grow its U.S. presence from 24 to 60 stores.

Mango Enters D.C. with 4 Stores

Mango is making a bigger push into the Mid-Atlantic. This year, it has opened a store in Tysons Corner Center and one in Fashion Centre at Pentagon City, both in Northern Virginia, as well as a unit in Bethesda, Maryland’s Westfield Montgomery. A District of Columbia location at 950 F St. in Penn Quarter also is in the works. All four stores will be about 4,300 square feet and will stock its women’s line exclusively. The new locations are part of the retailer’s U.S. expansion plan to reach a total of 40 stores this year.

The Fresh Market Announces 2 D.C. Locations

The Fresh Market is doubling its presence in the D.C. area. According to Progressive Grocer, the specialty grocer will anchor a new mixed-use development in Reston, Virginia, with a 27,000-square-foot, ground-floor location. And a 29,000-square-foot store will be built in Falls Church, Virginia. Both are set to open within the next three years.

World Market Opens Its First Baltimore Store

World Market opened its first store in the Baltimore area this spring. According to Maryland’s Daily Record, the store opened at The Avenue in White Marsh in May. This is the second store in Maryland for the home goods retailer, which has more than 230 locations in the U.S.

D.C. Metro Lands on Top 10 for Distressed Assets

Although investment sales remain subdued, the market continues to keep a close watch on the volume of distressed assets emerging across all property types. According to MSCI’s Capital trends U.S. Distress Tracker, the volume of distress for U.S. commercial property reached $94.2 billion in the second quarter, with a net gain of $2 billion. Office distress represents the lion’s share with $41 billion, followed by retail at $21.8 billion. Both D.C. and the district’s Virginia suburbs ranked in the top 10 for cumulative distress: DC. at No. 9 with $2.5 billion spanning 38 properties and D.C.’s Virginia suburbs at No. 10 with $2.4 billion spanning 31 properties. Baltimore is experiencing lower levels of distress, at $478.5 million.