KPMG surveyed 100 retail executives about their outlooks for the upcoming holiday season and estimates U.S. holiday retail sales will grow 4.2% year over year in 2022, down from the 14.1% year-over-year growth NRF reported for the 2021 holiday season. Key takeaways from KPMG’s survey:

• Retail leaders are showing optimism. Among KPMG’s 100 respondents, 68 expect sales to improve this year, while 24 expect a decline.
• On average, the executives’ companies plan to allocate 30% of projected holiday sales to marketing spend this holiday season. Last year’s survey turned up an intention to allocate 36% of projected sales.
• Most respondents’ companies will be open on Thanksgiving, while 44 of the 100 expect to close all stores. Eighty-five plan Black Friday promotions, and 82 plan promotions for Cyber Monday, each stat down slightly from last year.
• Almost all respondents, 92, expect a recession. In fact, 71 said a recession already has begun or will begin within the next year.
• To deal with a possible recession, most executives said their firms are cutting back on inventory and indirect expenses like travel while ramping up spending on customer loyalty programs.