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Rebound in base rent and NOI could be around the corner for shopping centers

May 17, 2021

Still digging out from an avalanche of tenant bankruptcies and unpaid rent bills, shopping centers posted a weaker performance in the first quarter of 2021 compared to the same period last year, according to ICSC’s Retail Real Estate Industry Report Q1-2021.

For the period spanning the second quarter of 2020 through the first quarter of 2021, base rent at shopping centers across the U.S. decreased 8.9 percent compared with the previous four quarters, to $18.80, the report said. And declining rents continued to drag net income down. Net operating income at U.S. shopping centers dropped 18.1 percent to $16.13 per square foot.

Year over year for the first quarter of 2021, base rent declined 11.7 percent; the first quarter of 2020 had represented the peak rent level before U.S. pandemic lockdowns.

But a rebound could lie just around the corner. During the first quarter, consumer sentiment reached its highest level in a year, as employment is recovering and spending is increasing significantly, according to the report.

U.S. consumers allocated a greater share of total expenditures to freestanding retail establishments and open-air shopping centers in the first quarter than they did in the fourth quarter of 2020, when holiday shopping patterns had them allotting more to malls and online, according to the report. They also allocated a higher share of total dollars spent to dining and other services in the first quarter than in the fourth quarter, as more of those businesses reopened and pandemic-related capacity restrictions eased.

8 facts about U.S. consumers

ICSC’s first-quarter 2021 Retail Real Estate Industry Report includes results from consumer surveys conducted between January and early April 2021 about current and expected shopping behaviors. Here’s what they found:

  1. 87 percent currently shop at small businesses.
  2. 82 percent expect businesses to maintain health and safety precautions even as the COVID-19 situation improves.
  3. 78 percent say living a healthy, well-balanced lifestyle is more of a priority today than in the past.
  4. 67 percent feel more connected to brands and comfortable with product purchases when visiting physical stores.
  5. 62 percent expect physical spaces to play a major role in the consumption of goods and services a year from now.
  6. As their comfort in visiting stores rises, 52 percent likely will cut back on online orders shipped home.
  7. 52 percent would like to see more online-only brands open stores.
  8. 40 percent likely will increase spending and cut back on savings as life returns closer to normal.

Read the full report.

By Brannon Boswell

Executive Editor, Commerce + Communities Today

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