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A significant portion of the U.S. government shut down on October 1 when congressional Republicans and Democrats were unable to reach agreement on a government funding bill.
According to a Michael Feroli, chief U.S. economist at J.P. Morgan, the shutdown may impact overall economic productivity, including consumer spending.
“Each week, a shutdown subtracts about 0.1% of annualized GDP growth via reduced government activity. There could be a sentiment channel as well if the duration of the shutdown enters uncharted territory,” Feroli said in a statement released by J.P. Morgan.
The last government shutdown — which started on December 22, 2018, and went until January 25, 2019 — lasted 35 days, making it the longest in history. It cost the United States an estimated $3 billion in lost GDP, according to the Congressional Budget Office.
“The two sides remain far apart,” said Moutray McLaren, executive vice president of ICSC’s Office of Government Relations & Public Policy. “A prolonged shutdown could impact both consumer confidence and discretionary spending, which would have consequences for our members and the Marketplaces Industry.”
As part of the shutdown, federal agencies, including the Bureau of Labor Statistics, have suspended operations, which means that the publication of official economic data — including the U.S. jobs report and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report — will be delayed.
A 2019 study from personal finance website WalletHub ranked the states that were previously hardest hit in terms of job loss. Washington, DC topped the list, followed by New Mexico, Maryland, Hawaii, Alaska, Virginia, West Virginia, Mississippi, Alabama and Arizona.
For more information contact gpp@icsc.com.