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U.S. online grocery sales keep getting stronger, but not without stores to support them, according to the 2023 Brick Meets Click/Mercatus 5-Year Grocery Sales Forecast. The online channel’s share of grocery spend is forecast to grow from 11.2% in 2022 to 13.6% in 2027. But more shoppers want to pick up their purchases at stores than to have them delivered or shipped.
The five-year nominal compound average growth rate for pickup sales of online grocery orders is expected to reach 13.6%, compared with 10.8% for delivery sales of online orders and 8% for ship-to-home online orders. The pickup channel is forecast to expand from 45.4% of online grocery sales in 2022 to 50.3% during 2027 largely because more consumers are gaining access to the service and feel comfortable using it, according to the report.
Meanwhile, the delivery channel already is saturated; most customers have multiple delivery options across a range of retail banners.
The dollar value per online order for pickup is expected to increase in 2023, as well, according to the report. The CAGR for order values over the next five years is projected at between 4.2% and 6.4%, inclusive of inflation. Ship-to-home is expected to come in at the lower end of that range, delivery in the mid-range and pickup on the higher end, according to the report.
Other Findings from Brick Meets Click/Mercatus 5-Year Grocery Sales Forecast
• Successful supermarkets are engaging with multiple third-party delivery providers.
• Grocers are selling ads and merchandising positions in stores to offset the cost of adding online services.
• Health concerns drive the demand for online grocery to some degree. Each month, COVID-19 concerns motivate around 10% of those who order groceries online.
By Brannon Boswell
Executive Editor, Commerce + Communities Today
ICSC champions small and emerging businesses in getting from business plan to brick-and-mortar.
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